Gesamtzahl der Seitenaufrufe

Mittwoch, 18. Juli 2012

Which means that a 5th one (rounded up) - Stennis - is coming in 1-2 months. Good luck Iran.

Three US Aircraft Carriers Now In The Middle East With Fourth En Route



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A week ago we reported news that Middle East veteran aircraft carrier CVN-74 Stennis was ending its brief sabbatical prematurely, and far earlier than previously expected, and heading right back into the field, er sea, of action. As Kitsapsun reported, "Bremerton-based aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis is returning to the Middle East much sooner than expected. The Navy hasn't officially announced the new deployment plan for the Stennis, said spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Zach Harrell." The ship came home to Naval Base Kitsap on March 2 after seven months of launching planes into Iraq and Afghanistan. Generally, it wouldn't go back to the Fifth Fleet area of responsibility for four to five years, after a deployment to the Western Pacific and a maintenance period. But with Iran making threats, crew members learned Saturday they'll be leaving again in late August for eight months." We concluded that shortly, Stennis will be the third carrier accompanying Lincoln and Enterprise. As it turns out, a third carrier was already en route, and as of today, CVN 69 Eisenhower is either at the opening of the Straits of Hormuz, or just past it. That makes 3 aircraft carriers in the middle east, 2 in the Gulf and the Arabian Sea and one just off the coast of Syria. And technically, the LHD 7 Iwo Jima Big Deck Amphibious ship, which is also just off the coast of Iran region, makes three and a half. Which means that a 5th one (rounded up) - Stennis - is coming in 1-2 months. Good luck Iran.

Source: Stratfor
So to recap: Four US aircraft carriers. One big deck amphibious warfare ship. One Iran. WTI well below its 2012 highs even with Bernanke having engaged in yet another flow-boosting Qualitative Easing operation. And One presidential election in 4 months

The Asian-American Arms Race In Charts

The Asian-American Arms Race In Charts



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"Asia is a study in contrasts. It is home to economic freedom and political liberty; it is also home to political instability and tyranny. Some of Asia’s borders are unsettled and volatile. And military budgets and capabilities are expanding, sometimes faster than economic growth. The rise of China as a great power presents both sides of this equation. It is being watched carefully by all the countries of the region. It is the U.S. that is recognized as the catalyst in ensuring a prosperous peace over conflict. America is a Pacific power. That much is a matter of geography and history. But the facts – and America’s principles and interests – demand more than resignation to geography. They call for continued American leadership, commitment, and the predominant comprehensive power that has enabled Asia’s very welcomed, opportunity-laden rise."
Thus prefaces the Heritage Foundation its Asian 'Book of Charts', which summarizes most of the key economic, financial, trade, geopolitical, most importantly militaristic tensions both in Asia and, by dint of being the global marginal economic force, the world itself. And while we will present the complete deck shortly, of particular interest we find the summary in 7 easy charts how Asia is slowly but surely catching up on that accepted by conventional wisdom GloboCop - the United States.
We present it in its entirety below.

Arms race brewing in Asia
Asian Navies vary broadly in size
China is gaining on US Navy
Americas forward deployed military

areas disputed in China, Japan, and Koreas
China's desruptive South China Sea
Areas disputed in China and India Mainland

Netanyahu Accuses Iran Of Being Behind Bulgarian Bus Explosion, Promises "Strong Response"

Netanyahu Accuses Iran Of Being Behind Bulgarian Bus Explosion, Promises "Strong Response"



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The number of casualties in the Bulgarian bus explosion (reported earlier) is not even known yet, but Israel already knows just who is behind it:
  • ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER SAYS SIGNS THAT IRAN BEHIND BURGAS BOMBING -RTRS
  • Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: "Iran is responsible for the terror attack in Bulgaria, we will have a strong response against Iranian terror." - Haaretz
Elsewhere:
  • CARNEY SAYS OBAMA BRIEFED ON BULGARIA BLAST THAT HIT ISRAELIS
  • CARNEY SAYS US NOT IN POSITION TO SAY WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUS ATTACK
And here we were wondering why crude spiked above $90 for the first time in months earlier today.

Dienstag, 10. Juli 2012

Third US Aircraft Carrier Returning Unexpectedly To Mideast Ahead Of Schedule

Third US Aircraft Carrier Returning Unexpectedly To Mideast Ahead Of Schedule



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The last time the US navy sent three aircraft carriers into the Arabian Sea/Persian Gulf was just a few short weeks before WTI broke above $110, and aggressive military tensions, coupled with concerns of an imminent invasion of Iran by Israel and/or 'others', were running high. Then summer arrived, as did the need to lower the price of gas and crude ahead of a veritable cornucopia of central banks easing into June and July, not to mention the need to keep gas as low as possible into the July 4th holiday. Now that the peak summer months are behind us this is all changing, and 4 months ahead of the presidential election, the need to have the "Wag the Dog" put option to round up the troops, not to mention votes, has arrived, as has the need to return to an outright aggressive military stance where Iran is concerned. Which is why we were not very surprised to learn that that Middle East veteran aircraft carrier, the CVN-74 Stennis, is going right back into Mordor, a few short months after it came back from its long stint in the Fifth Fleet, and will shortly complete the trio of aircraft carriers stationed within miles of Iran.
From Kitsapsun:
"Bremerton-based aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis is returning to the Middle East much sooner than expected. The Navy hasn't officially announced the new deployment plan for the Stennis, said spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Zach Harrell." The ship came home to Naval Base Kitsap on March 2 after seven months of launching planes into Iraq and Afghanistan. Generally, it wouldn't go back to the Fifth Fleet area of responsibility for four to five years, after a deployment to the Western Pacific and a maintenance period. But with Iran making threats, crew members learned Saturday they'll be leaving again in late August for eight months."
Oh, it is Iran making threats? We get it. Just like Syria is making threats to Turkey after the country "aggressively" took down a Turkish jet which was amicably flying over Syrian territory.
At least with the Stennis back, the US public can sleep soundly because Iran will not feel at all threatened with not two but three carriers, not to mention however many supporting ships:
Two U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups — USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Enterprise — are now in the Middle East. The Navy has doubled the number of minesweepers in the region, to eight, and moved a converted amphibious transport and docking ship, the USS Ponce, into the Persian Gulf to serve as a floating staging base for military operations or humanitarian assistance. Its first job will be as a hub for mine-clearing, according to Pentagon officials.
At least unlike the the Enterprise, which is currently on its final lifetime assignment for some reason in the Persian Gulf, the Stennis at least is veteran when it comes to all matters Middle Eastern.
The Stennis is familiar with Iranian threats. During its last deployment, which ran from August 2011 to March 2012, it exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The chief of Iran's military was quoted as telling "the American warship that passed through the Strait of Hormuz and went to the Gulf of Oman not to return to the Persian Gulf." The Stennis just went about its business, launching planes to help troops in Afghanistan, though family and friends back home were worried by the news coverage.

U.S. officials said the ships were in international waters, and they won't tolerate any effort by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-sixth of the world's oil is transported.

During its last deployment, the Stennis air wing conducted 13,389 sorties in support of troops in both wars, and rescued Iranian cargo ship sailors from pirates.
Finally, for those curious where US naval interest lie, here is the latest naval update map courtesy of Stratfor:

Dienstag, 3. Juli 2012

US Military Re-Surging In Persian Gulf As Turkey Scrambles Jets For Third Day And Iran Fires Medium-Range Missiles

US Military Re-Surging In Persian Gulf As Turkey Scrambles Jets For Third Day And Iran Fires Medium-Range Missiles

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If one only looks at equity or FX futures this morning, one would completely ignore the real action in the last few hours which is all about crude, where Brent just passed back above $100 and WTI is up over $3 on the session. The reason is that the market's ultra short term attention span has noticed the following piece from the NYT, which says nothing new, and which Zero Hedge readers have known for a while, yet as a regurgitation of an old theme, provides at least a "new" short-term catalyst: "The United States has quietly moved significant military reinforcements into the Persian Gulf to deter the Iranian military from any possible attempt to shut the Strait of Hormuz and to increase the number of fighter jets capable of striking deep into Iran if the standoff over its nuclear program escalates. The deployments are part of a long-planned effort to bolster the American military presence in the gulf region, in part to reassure Israel that in dealing with Iran, as one senior administration official put it last week, “When the president says there are other options on the table beyond negotiations, he means it.” Supposedly this is news, even though a month ago we observed the latest very much expected accumulation in the 5th Fleet in "And Meanwhile, In The Arabian Sea..."
Of course, the escalation posturing continues on both sides, as Russia and China are no longer shy about their particular interests in the region: "Iran said on Tuesday it had successfully tested medium-range missiles capable of hitting Israel in response to threats of military action against the country, Iranian media reported. The Islamic Republic announced the "Great Prophet 7" missile exercise on Sunday after a European Union embargo against Iranian crude oil purchases took full effect after another fruitless round of big powers talks with Tehran. Iran's official English-language Press TV said the Shahab 3 missile with a range of 1,300 km - able to reach Israel - were tested along with the shorter-range Shahab 1 and 2."
And just to make sure if and when all hell breaks, NATO is involved too, we read that Turkey scrambled jets for the third day in a row just to keep the provocations going. From Reuters:
Turkey's armed forces command said on Tuesday it had scrambled F-16 fighter jets for a third consecutive day on Monday after Syrian transport helicopters were spotted flying near to the Turkey-Syrian border, but there was no violation of Turkish airspace.

It said in a statement a total of six jets, four from a base in Incirlik in the south and two from Batman in eastern Turkey were scrambled in response to Syrian helicopters flying south of the Turkish province of Hatay, within 1.7-4.5 nautical miles of the Turkish border.
Actually, in retrospect perhaps one should ask why it isn't WTI that is crossing back over $100 following this barrage of belligerent news.
Finally, here is how the US naval distribution around the world looked like as of last week, courtesy of Stratfor:

4

Montag, 2. Juli 2012

that Iranian lawmakers have drafted a bill proposing a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz for oil tankers heading to sanctions supporters, i.e., embargo countries. Naturally, if implemented, this would mean an almost inevitable military retaliation on behalf of the "western world."

Crude Spikes On News Iran Lawmakers Propose Straits Of Hormuz Blockade For Sanctions Countries

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What goes down, must come up. In this case crude, which is soaring on news out of FARS that Iranian lawmakers have drafted a bill proposing a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz for oil tankers heading to sanctions supporters, i.e., embargo countries. Naturally, if implemented, this would mean an almost inevitable military retaliation on behalf of the "western world." Then again, this is not the first time Iran has postured with a blockade.
More:
A member of the Iranian parliament (Majlis) said that Iran will close the Hormuz Strait if the economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic take effect.

Arsalan Fathipour in an interview with Alalam News Network said that the recent oil price fall will not last for long.

"We take the control of the Hormuz Strait. If we are supposed to be sanctioned, we will not allow a drop of oil to pass through the strait," he said, Fars News Agency reported.

"In such a situation, oil price will surge and we will see that those who have imposed sanctions will not be able to be accountable for their people," he noted.

He noted that Iran can find new customers for oil.

Iran has stored up imports and hard currency for a "battle" against EU sanctions, officials said on Sunday, the day that the measures aimed at pressuring the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program take effect.

Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi said the country has stockpiled the population's daily needs to reduce the impact of the embargo hitting the oil and banking sectors.

"Today, we are facing the heaviest of sanctions and we ask people to help officials in this battle," Rahimi was quoted by the IRIB News.

He said the "dastardly sanctions" might cause "occasional confusion" in the market, but that the Iranian nation would not be stopped.

Central bank governor Mahmoud Bahmani also told the Mehr News Agency that Iran has "plans" to deal with the embargo and enough hard currency to meet its import needs.
And from Reuters:
Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee has drafted a bill calling for Iran to try to stop oil tankers from shipping crude through the Strait of Hormuz to countries that support sanctions against it, a committee member said on Monday.

"There is a bill prepared in the National Security and Foreign Policy committee of Parliament that stresses the blocking of oil tanker traffic carrying oil to countries that have sanctioned Iran," Iranian MP Ibrahim Agha-Mohammadi was quoted by Iran's parliamentary news agency as saying.

"This bill has been developed as an answer to the European Union's oil sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Agha-Mohammadi said that 100 of Tehran's 290 members of parliament had signed the bill as of Sunday.
If indeed willing to follow through, it surely mean Iran has at least implicit whisper support of Russian and Chinese support when the situation inevitably escalates.

Montag, 25. Juni 2012

Turkey Claims Syria Fired On Second Turkish Jet, Says "Act Won't Go Unpunished", Has Invoked NATO Articles 4 And 5

Turkey Claims Syria Fired On Second Turkish Jet, Says "Act Won't Go Unpunished", Has Invoked NATO Articles 4 And 5



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At this point even those who have never heard of the Gulf of Tonkin know where this is headed:
  • SYRIAN ACT 'WON'T GO UNPUNISHED,' TURKEY'S ARINC SAYS
  • SYRIAN ACT 'HOSTILE,' 'COLD-BLOODED,' ARINC SAYS
  • SYRIA SHOT DOWN TURKISH JET WITHOUT WARNING, NULAND SAYS
  • TURKEY INVOKED ARTICLES 4 & 5 FOR NATO MEETING, ARINC SAYS
  • TURKEY TO PROCEED AGAINST SYRIA USING LEGAL RIGHTS, ARINC SAYS
  • TURKISH JET SHOT DOWN IN INTERNATIONAL AIRSPACE, ARINC SAYS
And yet:
  • TURKISH JET 'MISTAKENLY' ENTERED SYRIAN AIRSPACE, ARINC SAYS
  • TURKISH JET WAS IN SYRIAN AIRSPACE ONLY 5 MINUTES, ARINC SAYS
Just the tip, eh?
And finally this, which makes it all too clear what Hillary Clinton's endgame here is:
  • Turkish deputy PM says Syria has also fired on a Turkish search-and-rescue plane -AP
And from Reuters:
Turkey said on Monday that Syrian forces had fired at a second Turkish plane which was searching for an F-4 reconnaissance jet shot down by Syria last week, but the second plane was not brought down.

Deputy prime minister Bulent Arinc told a news conference that Turkey would protect itself, within the framework of international law, against what it called Syria's "hostile action" of downing its warplane last week.

He said at the end of a seven-hour cabinet meeting on the incident that Syria's downing of the reconnaissance jet would not go unpunished.
Was that jet over Syrian airspace for "only 5 minutes" too?

Samstag, 23. Juni 2012

Russia has no interest in success of Iran nuclear talks

 

Friday, June 22, 2012

Russia has no interest in success of Iran nuclear talks

When it comes to the ongoing (and so far fairly ineffective) Iran nuclear talks, it is likely that the Russians simply do not want to see a resolution at this stage. The Russians have successfully inserted themselves in the middle of these talks and will probably do whatever they can to stall them. Why? The chart below gives us the answer. It is the breakeven oil price for various exporters - the all-in cost to deliver a barrel of oil to the market. And at current Brent prices Russia's oil industry is losing money.
Source: DB
Euronews: - The slump is bad news for energy-reliant Russia, with Brent the reference for its oil prices. This remains the case despite Putin’s expressed desire to cut the country’s dependence on energy exports [see the video on this topic]
The last thing the Russians need is for the Iran sanctions to be lifted any time soon. In fact they could probably benefit from some escalation of tensions. Russia obviously walks a fine line between wanting higher energy prices, but not so high that it will choke global growth, which is already extremely fragile. But they absolutely can not afford to have oil prices drop much further.
 
 
 
 

Donnerstag, 21. Juni 2012

Von Türkei aus CIA koordiniert Waffenlieferungen nach Syrien

Von Türkei aus CIA koordiniert Waffenlieferungen nach Syrien
21.06.2012 · Eine Gruppe CIA-Agenten ist offenbar im Süden der Türkei aktiv. Medienberichten zufolge koordiniert sie von dort aus, welche syrische Widerstandsgruppe welche Waffen erhält.
Von Matthias Rüb, Washington
© dapdWoher stammen diese Waffen? Angehörige der „Freien Syrischen Armee“ Mitte Juni in Aleppo
Der amerikanische Auslandsgeheimdienst CIA überwacht den Fluss von Waffen an die syrischen Rebellen und versucht diesen zu koordinieren. Wie amerikanische Medien unter Berufung auf Regierungsmitarbeiter in Washington und in arabischen Staaten berichteten, ist eine kleine Gruppe von CIA-Agenten im Süden der Türkei im Einsatz, um mit den Diensten verbündeter Staaten zu entscheiden, welche Widerstandsgruppe welche Waffen erhält.
Die Waffenlieferungen an die syrischen Rebellen umfassen Maschinengewehre, Munition, schultergestützte Raketen sowie Panzerabwehrwaffen. Die Waffen werden von der Türkei, Saudi-Arabien und Qatar bezahlt und zum großen Teil über die Landgrenze von der Türkei aus nach Syrien geschmuggelt.
Wie die Tageszeitungen „New York Times“ und „Wall Street Journal“ übereinstimmend berichteten, sind die CIA-Mitarbeiter seit einigen Wochen in der Süd-Türkei im Einsatz. Sie sollen unter anderem verhindern, dass Waffen in die Hände von Kämpfern des Terrornetzes „Al Qaida“ fallen. Das amerikanische Außenministerium hat medizinische Hilfsmittel sowie Kommunikationsausrüstung im Wert von 15 Millionen Dollar für zivile Oppositionsgruppen in Syrien bereitgestellt. Washington beharrt darauf, dass sich die amerikanische Hilfe für die syrische Opposition auf „nicht tödliche Mittel“ beschränkt.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/arabische-welt/von-tuerkei-aus-cia-koordiniert-waffenlieferungen-nach-syrien-11794461.html

Dienstag, 19. Juni 2012

Syrien Briten stoppen russisches Schiff mit Hubschraubern

Syrien Briten stoppen russisches Schiff mit Hubschraubern

19.06.2012 ·  Die britischen Behörden haben ein russisches Schiff vor Schottland gestoppt, das offenbar in Russland reparierte Kampfhubschrauber nach Syrien transportieren sollte. Das bestätigte das britische Außenministerium in London.
Ein russisches Schiff, das offenbar in Russland reparierte syrische Kampfhubschrauber zurückbringen sollte, ist von den britischen Behörden vor Schottland gestoppt worden. Das bestätigte das britische Außenministerium am Dienstag in London.
Die britische Versicherungsgesellschaft Standard Club habe ihren Versicherungsschutz für das Schiff, das zur russischen Frachter-Linie Femco gehört, auf Geheiß der Regierung in London zurückgezogen. Auch alle anderen Schiffe der Gesellschaft seien nicht mehr versichert. Nach Informationen des „Daily Telegraph“ war das Schiff bereits zuvor von den niederländischen Behörden verfolgt worden. Es habe deswegen den Kurs gewechselt. Vor Schottland sei es nun von den britischen Behörden übernommen worden.

Hague: Lieferungen müssen aufhören

Die Lieferung von Waffen nach Syrien fällt unter das EU-Embargo, das gegen Syrien verhängt wurde. Der Waffentransport als solcher ist davon nicht berührt. Allerdings gelten die Sanktionen auch für Versicherungen. Nach Angaben des Ministeriums in London hat Außenminister William Hague seinem russischen Amtskollegen Sergei Lawrow deutlich gemacht, dass „alle Lieferungen von Verteidigungsausrüstung aufhören müssen“.
Die britische Regierung arbeite eng mit ihren internationalen Partnern zusammen um sicherzustellen, dass alle gegen Syrien verhängten Maßnahmen, darunter auch das EU-Waffenembargo, voll umgesetzt werden.


The Inevitability Of US-China Conflict

The Inevitability Of US-China Conflict

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The question of whether conflict between US and China is inevitable is among the most important for the world as the US-China relationship, as JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest notes, is likely to be one of the most important issues of the 21st century. The inevitability view is sometimes explained by the thesis that countries rarely rise economically without also doing so militarily. The chart below looks at the major economic powers of the world since the year 1 at various intervals. Ignore for the moment some of the abstract issues which this kind of data involves; it’s pretty clear that China’s rise, fall and subsequent rise is something that hasn’t happened a lot over the past 2,000 years, and that the United States is on the front lines of having to adjust to it. Cembalest's recent interview with Henry Kissinger noted the impact of China's troubled relations with the West during the 19th century, which remains on China's political consciousness, and how China might define its interests in different ways than the West would, whether they relate to global energy security, North Korea, global warming, currency management or trade.
On China, and the not-so-inevitable clash of civilizations
At a client event in Beijing last week, I had the opportunity to interview Henry Kissinger on the 40th anniversary of his secret 1971 mission to meet with Zhou Enlai, and 1972 summit meeting with Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong. There are not many missions as impactful as this one was: within a few years, China’s re-opening began, propelled by Deng Xioping’s economic reforms. Reintegrating 20% of the world’s population following China’s central planning disasters of the 1950’s and 1960’s has not been easy for China or for the West, which has since benefited from lower imported goods prices from China, but saw an end to post-war manufacturing-led prosperity. The US-China relationship is likely to be one of the most important issues of the 21st century.


One topic we discussed was the question of whether conflict between the US and China is inevitable, a theme which has permeated a lot of academic and political science journals over the last 20 years. The “inevitable conflict” view has been advanced in different degrees by Yale’s Paul Kennedy, Princeton’s Robert Gilpin and most forcefully, by John Mearshimer at the University of Chicago. Similar concerns are found in “The End of China’s Peaceful Rise”, a 2010 article in Foreign Policy magazine by Elizabeth Economy, Director of Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. The inevitability view is sometimes explained by the thesis that countries rarely rise economically without also doing so militarily. The chart below looks at the major economic powers of the world since the year 1 at various intervals. Ignore for the moment some of the abstract issues which this kind of data involves; it’s pretty clear that China’s rise, fall and subsequent rise is something that hasn’t happened a lot over the past 2,000 years, and that the United States is on the front lines of having to adjust to it.





Any discussion of China’s engagement with the world needs to factor in China’s troubled relations with the West during the 19th century. Kissinger spoke about the impact this era continues to have on China’s political consciousness, which you can grasp by looking at some data and charts: opium imported into China which addicted up to 25% of its adult population, the exodus of Chinese silver to England and India to pay for it, and the collapse in China’s trade surplus. The Chinese Imperial Commissioner sent a letter to Queen Victoria asking her to cease the opium trade, which was banned in China in 1729 and again in 1836. Britain ignored the request. After a Chinese blockade of opium ships, the British invaded in 1840, and easily defeated the Chinese. China was forced to sign the Treaty of Nanking, one of the more one-sided treaties in history. The opium trade then doubled, leading to another war (and Chinese defeat) 20 years later. The Opium Wars played a large part in the collapse of the Qing Dynasty and subsequent occupation by foreign powers. This is not seen as ancient history in China.



With this backdrop, Kissinger encouraged our guests to understand how China might define its interests in different ways than the West would, whether they relate to global energy security, North Korea, global warming, currency management or trade. Kissinger acknowledges the pressures that come from an ideological predisposition in the US to confront the non-democratic world, and Chinese tendencies to sometimes view cooperation with the US as being self-defeating. However, engagement with the West is now central to China achieving its economic goals, and incoming governments in both China and the United States have every incentive to maintain the status quo. According to Kissinger, while conventional theories of realism in international politics point to potential conflict, it would be an overly literal interpretation to consider conflict inevitable. Both sides have a lot to lose and little to gain from conflict escalation, creating conditions in which compromises should be able to be found. If he’s right, US-China relations would be another thing that could go right in the world, confounding more negative expectations.

Sonntag, 17. Juni 2012

Russland spielt im Atomstreit mit dem Iran eine Schlüsselrolle - und müsste im Fall eines Krieges mit vielen iranischen Flüchtlingen rechnen

AtomprogrammRussland setzt im Irankonflikt auf Diplomatie

Russland spielt im Atomstreit mit dem Iran eine Schlüsselrolle - und müsste im Fall eines Krieges mit vielen iranischen Flüchtlingen rechnen. Mit viel Geschick ist es Moskau bislang gelungen, die Eskalation zu vermeiden.
Vladimir Putin und Mahmud Ahmadinedschad bei einem Treffen in Peking Anfang Juni. Quelle: AFP
Vladimir Putin und Mahmud Ahmadinedschad bei einem Treffen in Peking Anfang Juni. Quelle: AFP
Moskau / TeheranAuf heimischem Parkett will Russland eine Eskalation des Atomstreits mit dem Iran verhindern. Denn ein Scheitern der Gesprächsrunde an diesem Montag und Dienstag in Moskau würde wohl nicht nur das Ende der diplomatischen Bemühungen bedeuten, sondern auch den Beginn militärischer Optionen. Irans Erzfeind Israel, der Teherans Atomprogramm als ernsthafte Bedrohung einstuft, ist gegen Verhandlungen und für Militärschläge gegen Atomanlagen.

 Von den negativen Folgen eines Waffengangs wäre kein Land so betroffen wie Russland“, sagt der Politologe Jewgeni Satanowski. Moskau fürchtet einen Ansturm iranischer Kriegsflüchtlinge über das Kaspische Meer und eine Destabilisierung an seiner Südflanke.
Bereits vergangenen Monat in Bagdad war es Moskau, das die Atomgespräche rettete. Die Verhandlungschefs, die EU-Außenbeauftragte Catherine Ashton und Irans Unterhändler Said Dschalili, waren schon auf dem Weg zur Pressekonferenz, um die Gespräche für gescheitert zu erklären. Dann aber beruhigte angeblich Russland beide Seiten, brachte sie wieder an einen Tisch und schlug ein neues Treffen vor.
„Russland will, dass beide in Moskau endlich mal miteinander reden und nicht wieder aneinander vorbei“, sagt ein ausländischer Diplomat in Teheran. Erst vor kurzem besprach Präsident Wladimir Putin am Rande eines Gipfeltreffens in Peking den Atomstreit auf höchster Ebene mit seinem iranischen Amtskollegen Mahmud Ahmadinedschad.
Russland glaubt, bei technischen Streitfragen vorankommen zu können. Im Atomstreit mit dem Iran geht es derzeit vor allem um zwei Punkte: Inspektionen von Militäranlagen, wo laut westlichen Geheimdienstberichten Atomtests durchgeführt werden, und die Urananreicherung auf 20 Prozent. „Das kann man lösen, nur müssen beide Seiten guten Willen haben und dabei geduldig und tolerant sein“, sagt der iranische Außenminister Ali Akbar Salehi bei einem Treffen mit seinem russischen Amtskollegen Sergej Lawrow in Teheran.

Iran Wie der Konflikt um das Atomprogramm eskalierte

  • Iran: Wie der Konflikt um das Atomprogramm eskalierte
  • Iran: Wie der Konflikt um das Atomprogramm eskalierte
  • Iran: Wie der Konflikt um das Atomprogramm eskalierte
  • Iran: Wie der Konflikt um das Atomprogramm eskalierte
Der Iran ist bereit, die von der Internationalen Atomenergiebehörde IAEA geforderte Inspektion seiner Militäranlage in Parchin in der Nähe Teherans zuzulassen. Und Teheran ist auch bereit, die Anreicherung einzustellen. Doch der Iran beharrt weiter auf einem zivilen Nuklearprogramm, Urananreicherung inklusive. Der Westen müsse seine Sanktionen aufheben, fordert Chefunterhändler Dschalili. „Kooperation und gleichzeitig Drohungen - das geht nicht.“
Rückendeckung kommt aus Moskau. Lawrow warnt vor neuen „einseitigen“ Zwangsmaßnahmen wie etwa einem Öl-Embargo. Das Staatsunternehmen Rosatom kündigte unlängst Interesse am Bau weiterer Atomkraftwerke im Iran an.
Doch vor allem die westlichen Vertreter in der 5+1-Gruppe - die UN-Vetomächte USA, China, Russland, Frankreich und Großbritannien sowie Deutschland - wollen vor der Aufhebung der Sanktionen zunächst konkrete Schritte sehen. Dazu gehören Antworten auf noch offene Fragen zu möglichen Atomwaffenprogrammen.

Konflikt mit Iran Das iranische Atomprogramm

  • Konflikt mit Iran: Das iranische Atomprogramm
  • Konflikt mit Iran: Das iranische Atomprogramm
  • Konflikt mit Iran: Das iranische Atomprogramm
  • Konflikt mit Iran: Das iranische Atomprogramm
Als eine Art Gegenleistung hat die Gruppe wirtschaftliche Erleichterungen angeboten, etwa Ersatzteile für iranische Passagierflugzeuge. Doch das lehnt Teheran empört ab. „Wir wollen unser legitimes Recht, keine Bonbons“, schimpft Parlamentspräsident Ali Laridschani. Beobachter sehen eine Einigung in weiter Ferne. Das Treffen in Moskau sei wohl eher Zeitverschwendung, sagt ein europäischer Diplomat am IAEA-Sitz in Wien hinter vorgehaltener Hand.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/atomprogramm-russland-setzt-im-irankonflikt-auf-diplomatie/6761810.html

Donnerstag, 14. Juni 2012

With Egypt On The Verge Of A Military Coup And Martial Law, Art Cashin Issues A Warning


With Egypt On The Verge Of A Military Coup And Martial Law, Art Cashin Issues A Warning

Tyler Durden's picture




This just out:
  • EGYPT STATE TV SAYS PARLIAMENT NO LONGER LIGITIMATE
  • EGYPT STATE TV CITES CONSTITUTIONAL COURT ON PARLIAMENT
And more from Reuters:
A constitutional court ruling on Thursday means that the whole of the lower house of Egypt's parliament will be dissolved and a new election will have to be held, the court's head Farouk Soltan told Reuters by telephone after the ruling was issued.

"The ruling regarding parliament includes the dissolution of the lower house of parliament in its entirety because the law upon which the elections were held is contrary to rules of the constitution," he said, speaking two days before another election to pick a new president.

Soltan said the ruling was binding on all institutions of state, adding that it would be up to the executive to call for the new election that he said would take place.
In other words, the military is once again preparing to take over. A big hint came yesterday via AP:
Egypt's Justice Ministry on Wednesday gave the country's military police and intelligence agents the right to arrest civilians over wide range of suspected crimes, including "resisting authorities," sparking charges that the country's military rulers want to extend their grip on power even after handing over to civilians.

The decision comes during heightened tensions in Egypt, three days before a highly polarized presidential runoff election and a day before rulings by the country's highest court that could dissolve the Islamist-dominated parliament and even cancel the Saturday-Sunday presidential vote.

The decision, published in the official gazette, would remain in effect until a new constitution is in place. The process of writing a constitution has hit snags. On Tuesday the Islamist-dominated parliament voted on an assembly to draft the document, but liberals boycotted the session. An earlier attempt to name the body collapsed because of opposition from liberals. Both times they charged that Islamists were unfairly dominating the procedure.
...
Military analysts said the military arrest powers were a temporary measure intended to fill a security vacuum resulting from last year's uprising, when the police force collapsed and disappeared from the streets during the first days of the mass protests.

"The police force has not recovered completely, and security is not back," said Sayyed Hashim, a former military prosecutor, in a TV interview.

Rights activists warned the new decision creates a reproduction of notorious emergency laws that expired recently and said that it also could extend the rule of the generals, even if they transfer power to civilians on time by the end of the month.

"This is a declaration of martial law, as if we are living in banana republic," said Gamal Eid, a prominent rights lawyer.
So things are going from bad to worse? Yep. As Art Cashin has been warning for quite a while, here is his latest assessment:
Weekend Elections - Everyone is talking about Sunday’s Greek elections but there are also key elections in France and Egypt.

The Greek election has been made somewhat less important by the “still under construction” Spanish bailout. The lack of a clear quid pro quo up front for Spain opens the door to renegotiations for all the other European bailouts.

Whichever party wins in Greece will have latitude to negotiate a less onerous deal. That would also make a coalition government easier - “we were all part of easing the peoples burden.”

The French elections may make Europe less functional. They will likely strengthen Hollande’s hand in reversing the Sarkozy “reforms”. He has already rolled back the retirement age to 60 from 62. The Germans are not happy.

The most important election this weekend may have nothing to do with the Eurozone - at least directly. The election in Egypt may change the face of the Middle East. The implications to Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia are enormous. Will the most populous Arab nation become a theocracy? This will be some weekend.
And as Egypt falls to the counter-revolution, this time military, 2012 is once again nothing more than a repeat of 2011

The Saudis tightening the noose around Iran

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

The Saudis tightening the noose around Iran

Saudi Arabia is putting severe pressure on Iran by pumping record amounts of crude. It is starting to look more like a geopolitical move rather than an OPEC based targeting of supplying the market. The Saudis have gone beyond simply marginalizing Iran as a major oil producer.
SFGate: - Traditional rivals Saudi Arabia — a Sunni Muslim nation — and Shiite Muslim Iran are jockeying for influence in the Middle East as well as in OPEC.

Iran has warned the Saudis not to use the oil weapon against it by increasing supplies to countries that no longer get Iranian crude due to the sanctions. Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi has denied such intentions, telling reporters his country sells to whoever buys.

"We don't sit and say `we want to sell to this country or that country (or) whatever," he said.

But Saudi overproduction is clearly rankling the Iranians. In comments to Iran's Mehr news agency, former Iranian oil minister Gholam Hossein Nozari noted that "political issues have overshadowed OPEC," while analysts say the political implications of Saudi Arabia's production policy cannot be ignored.

"You do wonder what's tied up perhaps with the Iranian political issue," said Neil Atkinson, director of Energy & Utilities Research and Analysis. "Of course the lower the price at the moment the more damage that does to Iran."
It's happening at the time when Iranian crude production is at multi-year low and Brent is below $98/barrel. By severely limiting Iran's financial strength, the Saudi's will certainly be able to increase their influence in the region.

Source: OPEC/Bloomberg

Iran is clearly feeling the pain. The World Bank has moved its Iran GDP forecast for 2013 growth from positive 2.9% just six months ago to negative 0.7% now. Iran's banks are isolated as SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) - the international money transfer system - has cut them out of its network. Inflation (even the official number) is closing in on 25%. The Israelis now believe Iran's economy is near collapse.
Arutz Sheva: - "The Iranian economy is near collapse, therefore it is time to continue to tighten the sanctions without letting up," Finance Minister Dr. Yuval Steinitz told visiting the Italian Prime Minister Monday.
With this backdrop in place, tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are escalating. Apparently the Saudis recently executed some Iranian citizens for "drug trafficking".
Tehran Times: - Iran will send a “legal-consular” delegation to Saudi Arabia to probe the recent execution of a number of Iranian prisoners in the Arab country, a Foreign Ministry official told the Persian service of IRNA on Wednesday.
...
The Mehr News Agency also reported on Wednesday that the planned visit of the Iranian deputy foreign minister to Saudi Arabia had been cancelled over the executions.
In spite of the current international focus on Syria, it is Iran that poses the greatest risk to the region. Isolated and denied a great deal of its foreign currency revenue, Tehran can become highly unpredictable and possibly quite dangerous. It is also possible that the current leadership's grip on power is somewhat tenuous. The Saudi'd may be closer to a destabilized Iran than the bargained for.


SoberLook.com

Mittwoch, 13. Juni 2012

SyrienKonflikt wird zum Zankapfel zwischen USA und Russland

SyrienKonflikt wird zum Zankapfel zwischen USA und Russland

Für Zündstoff zwischen den beiden Staaten sorgen vor allem russische Waffengeschäfte mit der Regierung in Damaskus. Unterdessen steigt die Zahl der Syrer, die in die Türkei fliehen, stetig an.
UN-Blaumhelme in Damaskus. Quelle: dpa
UN-Blaumhelme in Damaskus. Quelle: dpa
Washington/New York er Syrien-Konflikt wird immer mehr zum Zankapfel zwischen den USA und Russland. Russlands Aussagen, wonach seine Waffenlieferungen nichts mit dem Konflikt in Syrien zu tun haben, seien "schlicht und einfach unwahr", erklärte US-Außenministerin Hillary Clinton. Aus Sicht eines ranghohen UN-Vertreters hat der Machtkampf in Syrien mittlerweile den Charakter eines Bürgerkriegs angenommen. Die Regierungstruppen besiegten einem Bericht des Staatsfernsehens zufolge die Rebellen in der umkämpften Stadt Haffe.

Cold War 2.0 Has Begun … In Syria

Cold War 2.0 Has Begun … In Syria

George Washington's picture




We noted in February:
The U.S. is supporting the Syrian opposition (and see this), considering military options for ousting the Syrian government, American allies Britain and Qatar allegedly already have foreign troops inside Syria, and the U.S. has been planning regime change in Syria for over 50 years.
Indeed, the United States is fighting on the same side as 3 terrorist groups in Syria.
Even Pat Buchanan asks:
If its good for Al Qaeda, can it be good for us?
Indeed, terrorist rebels have been responsible for much of the violence inside Syria. And outside monitors have confirmed that the situation on the ground is much different than it is being portrayed in the Western media. (And according to the large German newspaper FAZ, those recently massacred in Hama were on the same side as Syrian leader Assad).
Russia has repeatedly stated that it would consider an attack on Syria as an attack on its national security. (And Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that if the U.S. invades the sovereignty of countries like Syria, it could lead to nuclear war.   And see this.)
Now, Russia is selling attack helicopters to the Syrian government, and defending the sales because the U.S. is supplying rebels with weapons to fight against the government.
Cold War 2.0.  And this time, China may participate.
Of course, Iran and Syria have had a mutual defense pact for years. So war in Syria could well drag Iran into a hot war.